IPCC's SREX

Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC) published its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). In it, the body outlined the results of simulations to predict how extreme weather events might be affected in the future due to anthropogenic climate change, as well as other natural weather variations. It also outlines how global institutions should respond to these projected events, and how we as a human population can prepare ourselves for dealing with them. The IPCC concedes that it is incredibly difficult to make any definite conclusions, and sites the lack of extreme weather event data as a source of possible misinterpretations of their projected frequency and intensity. However, they did manage to point out a few areas in which anthropogenic climate change is “very likely” (90-100% probability) or “likely” (66-90% probability) to affect extreme weather events. It is likely that we will see a global trend of increased precipitation, as well as extreme coastal high water due to rising sea levels. There will also likely be longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves, going along with the conclusion that some areas might see more intense droughts. The IPCC is very certain that there will be a marked increase in minimum and maximum daily temperature extremes by the end of this century. They found it very likely that, therefore, there will be an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights and increase in warm days and nights. What I found most striking about this report, however, was its claim that extreme weather events that might now be a 1 in 20 year event might become a 1 in 10 or 1 in 5 year event. 

Source:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Weather Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation." Can be found at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPM_Approved-HiRes_opt.pdf